Risk intelligence for crypto markets

Would your position have survived?

Your leverage, tested against every minute the exchange has recorded. Risk solutions for decentralised and traditional finance desks trading crypto, measured on the venue's own mark price.

Probability of liquidation · BTC · Binancelive
loading the live grid…
Rows are leverage, columns the horizon from entry. Each cell is how much of the time since 2020 a long opened at a random minute was liquidated within that horizon. Green is the lowest probability on the grid, red the highest.
BTC, 10x long, 24-hour horizon
probability of liquidation, Binance, since 2020
In plain words
opened once a day
Last time it happened
events on record

How it works

Nothing is modelled. Every minute of the coin's history is taken as an entry, the horizon is looked ahead, and what happened is measured, dated and shown against the price.

01

Your position

Coin, side, liquidation price or leverage, horizon. The distance to liquidation is the move that matters, in dollars and in percent.

02

The venue's own mark price

Liquidation happens on the exchange's mark, so that is the series we measure on, one exchange at a time, back to each coin's listing, at one-minute resolution.

03

What the record says

How often the move reached your distance within the horizon, the odds in plain words, the leverage that would have survived, every event dated, the distribution horizon by horizon.

Coverage

Five venues today, each on its own mark-price history.

Binance952 perpetualsmark price from 2020
Bybit829 perpetualsmark price from each listing
OKX478 swapsmark price, filling in
Kraken Futures275 perpetualsmark price from 2022
Hyperliquid178 perpetualsown candles, Binance before

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